Hong Kong stocks next year is only worth your participation | Hong Kong | Investment | stock

  Text / Sina Finance opinion leaders (micro-channel public number kopleader) Columnist Ancient Valley shares in 2017 immediately had finished, there will be two weeks of trading this year, a miracle may happen, so maybe the market。 I completely gave up two years ago Dajia shares, the funds entrusted to rest a little more cattle than my friend。
The worst two years of net worth, the best of times, this month, and six months expire, do not know the final results will be, but at least better than I would do it by yourself。
  Friends would say, you're not known as a veteran of 20 years of stock market。 It is precisely because I am too long in the A-share market, will choose to give money to more professionals in this program, their focus on Hong Kong stocks and US stocks above。
Because I think more and more difficult to manipulate a share。
Before going abroad aware of this, two years ago, the stock market crash strengthened my understanding of this led me more determined to leave exit。   I talked a few topics today。   First, you earn money in the past, in fact, is to make students liquidity Ogawa。
A share of the market, from mid-2015 to the present more than two years, he was a drama, you do not separate, cut off from year to year to run, you should 2014,15,16,17 years to this point is a series , so in a few years you share market, perhaps you made money。
But inside there is a core of very implicit premise – you earn may be due to the central bank's liquidity Ogawa students to give you money, and you do not necessarily earn a listed company's own money, earn listed companies terms of money。
  Just as the real estate industry, like you in the last five and ten years, just bought a house, buy two or three sets of 35 sets house, you will easily enter the ranks of millions or even billionaires。
What do you own it?What is the contribution of this process?Actually no, you just bought a house, keep it。   Play the stock market is not the same is true?So many years, asset inflation due to the Chinese central bank issued currency, caused by the stock market it is also a manifestation of assets。
You do not understand is that you earn listed companies, listed companies and you earn but with Ogawa comrades Super-currency liquidity。   I asked you a question, 2015 to today, do you make money in the overall A-share market?If you make money, then I ask you earn money, more than the growth rate of the central bank to print money yet?The proportion of your money over the past four years the price increases every bowl of beef noodles of Lanzhou yet?If it does, congratulations。 If not, you have to strive。
  But I also believe that from mid-2015 to today, there are a lot of people should not earn money from a share market。 Unfortunately, such an era of rampant money you are not making money, so do you think you can do?  Second, the market is not a short mechanism, a not punish fraud, evil's market, ultimately harm all investors。
Over the past few years, do more did not earn, you have had a chance to be able to make money, short。
Unfortunately, there is no Dajia shares trading system provides the opportunity to give you, like here only to talk about。
  In the A-share market short talk about the system and mechanisms should be reviled million。
I was about ten years ago such an idea, just like you would want to hate these people market introduction of short selling!But in Hong Kong and in the ten years after the US stock market five or six years, I am more and more profound understanding: no short mechanism in a market, it is very difficult to make a lot of money, and will have very, very much "evil" phenomenon, really good difficult for companies to come up。   A few years ago, the US stock market-listed Focus Media, New Oriental, and 360, all of these companies have been blocking short bodies, the stock plummeted。 In this process, because I am Chinese reasons, these companies are more or less understand some。 I basically have participated in these few stocks to do more to fight back。   I observed that, after these companies were short, in order to be able to witness innocent, overtime night meeting, investors kept communication, Taoxintaofei, business secrets and even his own company can not be all kinds of public, gave to investors made public, so as to eliminate the market's misunderstanding and miscalculation, bosses of listed companies and a major shareholder of a jittery。 Because stock prices affect its market value, affect its position in the industry, the impact of his bank loans, the proportion of large shareholders pledge impact on the outside of the chain reaction, etc.。
So in order to prove himself to investors, worried about being short, worried that markets do not understand, desperately want to customize prove innocence。   These good sign in a market share Exist?If the bosses of listed companies and large shareholders, see through this market, investors can only vote with their feet。
You can point the proportion that are sold How do I price?He will actually come from the heart afraid of this thing you?  However, if this market there has been a can melt into more shares, the stock price can take it, every minute there is power to hit zero。
There is such a big stick in his hand opposite of the existence of a world where the owner, then the letter I dare nonsense, hype tell stories to tell, dare not gingerly, for fear of it shareholders?Owners and major shareholders of listed companies to focus on business fundamentals of business, rather than on a story, do a high price to cash, this is the most basic fundamentals of a healthy market。
  A few days before the news, see the Commission or a department spokesman, told a noble spirit of the statement, the Commission should strengthen supervision and audit efforts issuance examination committee, strict quality control to ensure the good listed companies to put。 I saw this news is simply a belly laugh break!The stock market a good company, do not rely on the issuance examination committee to review out of it?In addition to efforts to increase the rent outside, what role?  Ali, Tencent, Jingdong listed overseas at the time, A shares do not meet the conditions right?A child born nature is good, the beginning of human nature is good thing。
But in a hostile environment is not good。 It will become a good boy bad boy。
Truly a good company, in addition to their own efforts, but also by the strict regulatory, institutional and disciplinary punishment short of market mechanisms to maintain the。
So under a good system, people who want to do bad things, and will be bound by convergence in a bad system, next to the boss, are telling stories, large-cap cash collateral, then who am I to be old honest real good business fundamentals do?Is that the beginning of music as a bad thing it wanted?He just clever use of this loophole in the system fills the last story too ambitious, funding round to continue, the system of regulators is the most-makers should learn a lesson from the people。
  Third, the Shanghai Composite rose 50 A shares in fact is a volume reduction, incremental deduction at source of funds A shares。
  The return home of some old friends and securities market are also discussed in the A-share market summary and the following year view。 Many people think that a year more sad thing is, it was up more than 50 permits a small number of shares represented, and most stocks fell to spent 2017。   GEM index may be lower than the beginning point, the Shanghai index probably rose 50 percent had more than a dozen, this year's market is hard to do。 And a lot of people are looking forward, the market will convert the incident has occurred next year, there will be greater opportunities for small stocks out。
  And my personal opinion, the stock market in mid-2017 the trend is relatively moves a healthier, because, after all, is the small number of large cap stocks on the rise。 If the market next year style switch back most of the small stocks rose, while large stocks do not rise, I think the market will once again fell into a sad situation!Of course, I also think that the rise in the market value of the card 50 which is artificially high, but at least better than small stocks mess up。
  Because a typical share is the most capital-driven market。 We also discuss together the analysis of the market next year may incremental funding sources。   Unfortunately, we explore after careful analysis, analysis of possible a few incremental funding, the end result is not very optimistic。
  First, from the world in terms of scope, the Fed is shrinking table。
China's central bank can only follow, but in the efforts to be different rhythm on Bale。
  Second, margin brokerage trust of the market, line 3 will accept the lessons of mid-2015, and it was strictly regulated live。
  Third, from the real estate market does not seem to see a lot of capital inflows, in fact, reduce the amount of money supply, when the entire market, a real estate could be the first to market liquidity is frozen。   Fourth, look forward to the inflow of foreign capital also appears inadequate。
In the long term it could increment the more obvious, but the short-term a year or two, you should also see the large magnitude of the inflow of funds。 Even if the inflow of foreign capital would you feel really involved in small stocks do?  Fifth, it was proposed two years ago, out of the funds will be a substantial reflux after nineteen large, currently see no significant evidence。
  Now the long-term sideways market, digestion high valuation has been pretty good, unfortunately, I would have been able to help thousands of points of A shares rose company BATJ not in A-share listing。
You must not blame why did these companies in the domestic market, because your listing rules ah, ah do not have the conditions。
  You also do not understand the opposite point of view, saying that these companies expect to return to the domestic market, and to that end campaigned。
In fact, you think about it, these companies are now on the market value of one trillion yuan, or even the size of several trillion yuan。
And inside these companies account for a large proportion of foreign investment funds, you get back to the domestic market, so that the majority of domestic people to do disk access?Let foreign capital, cash in this position right now?Although these companies, and perhaps room to rise, however, it has gone up compared to ten times and a hundred times the space, how much of it there will be future?You think about this truth, so looking forward to returning to these companies, in addition to the investment bank's shareholders and malicious inside, you are on glue。
  We take a look at US-listed two companies, one is Focus Media, has A shares RTO, I did not read carefully, about the market value of 150 billion yuan。
In addition a recent 360, backdoor listing of the company, several consecutive daily limit, I believe there are one thousand billion market value。
So these companies in the US market, due to some aspects of the company's flaws, or where some investors misunderstood, but was short, the market value was dropped a dozen billion dollars, so the company back to A shares, there will be rise times of a few times, if this is understood as the capital market of the food chain, a shares in the ring which such a food chain?  Here, you will find me on the 2018 A-share market is not seen too pessimistic?In fact on the contrary, I think the stock market in 2018, as long as the regulation is no longer Hunzhao and external shocks, not too bad, even said it should be the beginning of a bull market, or at least a structural bull market。 Because large stocks continued to rise it is in line with interests of all parties。
After nineteen open big finish to sink in mind to carry out his economic。 Xi also greatly various occasions proposed to do a big country weighing equipment, core assets, rise of great powers, etc.。 These views will be forthcoming and various policies are closely linked, and will implement all levels, will eventually be reflected in the capital market。 But I think this market is Hong Kong, not too bad as long as the A shares, Hong Kong stocks more certain opportunity。
  Our generation in a small time school education stage, often have such a word, "conditional to, no conditions should create conditions'。 But investment this thing, some money in your hand Why should they have the opportunity to invest in a risk and return does not match the market to look for it?Conditional on the market, did not condition on the market to find qualified I had said passage widely circulated in the market: "US stock markets are not rabbits not spread eagle, met with the Hong Kong stock market is not necessarily a rabbit spread eagle, A-share market is no rabbit to spread eagle "。 So I would first look at the market in the hands of the decision in which the spread eagle?  Hong Kong stock market is now concerned about people who have very much reason to invest a lot, I'm just from the perspective of my personal observation, said a few simple: first, cheap is the last word, from a valuation point of view, rose a year Hong Kong stock market, is still the world's most expensive market。 A year without a rise in stocks, now from a valuation point of view is still the world's most expensive。
Generally speaking?A share is lower than the shares of the same company twice the difference, then you have any reason to buy expensive。 Over the past two markets is not because China Unicom, Shenzhen and Hong Kong now because there are reasons pass through Hong Kong and Shanghai, connecting channel has in fact opened up, go buy expensive company reasons basically not established。 From a psychological point of view, if you want to lose money, buy two markets with a public company, you are willing to lose 10 times price-earnings ratio of 20 times earnings or loss。
  Second, the self-cleaning mechanism Hong Kong stock market is still。
Hong Kong stock market out of thousands every year because of cheating to kill eight of ten companies delisting。 To December, when Hong Kong appeared to focus on a few thousand shares given to clean up the fight against old event。
In addition and more importantly short mechanism Hong Kong stock market is relatively strong, which in this market, foreign capital is an ongoing short power, I have contacted some of the bosses of listed companies, because it may be short, have become cautious, Zeixin not Zeidan, so I think this is a premise can invest in the market。   Third, the A shares of Hong Kong。 Due to open on Shanghai and Hong Kong through the Hong Kong and Shenzhen, the domestic funding of water from the north south, Shenzhen and Hong Kong through and through Hong Kong and Shanghai, the proportion of domestic funds for the representative of increased foreign in reducing its stake in the middle, so there after the effect of making money, more money will move south, slowly raise the appropriate valuation of Hong Kong stocks, which means that a shares of Hong Kong in the long, this should also be a trend of the times。 The key point is the middle of the A shares our concept is easier to understand and accept。
  Fourth, try to avoid participating in small-cap stocks。 The A shares of Hong Kong, Hong Kong does not mean the stock market is paradise, on the contrary, the risk of Hong Kong is very large, and in many ways should be far greater than the A shares, so the edge here, but also cautious。 The core point is that, to avoid participating in small-cap stocks, we are talking about the old thousand shares in Hong Kong。
How to judge this matter it?In fact, the operation is very difficult, I have summarized as a simple and crude, is not involved in small-cap stocks, small cap stocks is what?I understand, more than 50 billion Hong Kong dollars, to be involved。 The lowest minimum stock market value to more than 20 billion Hong Kong dollars in。 Too many small but beautiful story, essentially poison。   Fifth, adhere to long-term investment, energy use in the analysis of trace fundamentals play a trade advantage of our group。
In a word, the current large and inexpensive core assets can be found in Hong Kong stocks, remember not rabbits not spread eagle。