Deutsche Bank: RMB more likely to join the SDR in 2016

Night network, network nightlife Finance YORK May 26 news, after 2010, was rejected this year, the yuan is IMF [microblogging] (IMF [microblogging]) into the special drawing rights (SDR) currency basket in a loud voice, but Deutsche Bank (Deutsche Bank) SDR that the yuan is more likely to join in 2016。  China's central bank recently likelihood [microblogging] official hinted yuan in 2015 to become the currency of the SDR is not high。Chinese central bank vice governor Yi Gang said on Friday that the renminbi "freely usable" this indicator is relatively weak, the yuan into the SDR to be required to obtain 70% of the votes, therefore the review process for the renminbi to extend into next year is possible。  Secretary Zhang Tao Bank of Treaty and Law at the "2015 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum," also published a similar view。He pointed out that some indicators of the RMB and China's foreign financial liberalization, is still far from meeting the basic requirements to join SDR index。  Deutsche Bank pointed out, IMF SDR basket of currencies that might be considered to constitute October this year, so China in the second and third quarter of this year is expected to have a significant monetary and financial reform measures。For when the renminbi will join the SDR, Deutsche Bank believes that even if the yuan in October this year voted consideration of IMF SDR currency, China will still continue to apply to join in 2016。In addition, the possibility of the yuan SDR selected from four percent this year, down three percent, while the possibility before the end of 2016 was selected for Qi Cheng。  Deutsche Bank believes that more open capital account or will lead to a net inflow of international capital during the year 2015, first of all, compared to domestic investors, foreign investors are currently experiencing barriers。Given the limited foreign investment in China's capital market channels, and gradually open capital account is expected to lead to more capital inflows; Second, the government will be cautious early in capital account liberalization, the policy will be ready to prevent disruptive capital outflows; and finally, the renminbi interest rate differential between onshore and offshore will continue to support capital inflows。At the same time, capital account liberalization would be positive for the capital market this year, China's economic development as well as the yuan。  SDR on whether the renminbi will join this year, Morgan Stanley (Morgan Stanley) that, given the progress from the previous review in 2010 has made the RMB, the yuan is now the condition has been greatly added to the SDR basket of ripe, but can approve this year depends on whether the IMF willing to be flexible to adjust its inspection standards。  Morgan Stanley pointed out that, according to the IMF staff report published in November 2011 to discuss the expansion of the SDR basket standard, the yuan may not qualify, mainly accounted for RMB official international reserves and the proportion of international debt issuance were ranked seventh and eighth enough to trigger an immediate approval of two yuan to join SDR。However, if the IMF Council to give more weight to the scale of Chinese exports and GDP, as well as the use of the renminbi in international payments, then it is possible this year to enter the yuan SDR basket。  IMF every five years for the SDR basket of currencies revaluation, in addition to considering an exit scale economies, IMF adopted the "free to use" the criteria to determine whether a suitable entering the SDR currency。To achieve the "freedom to use" standard, the currency need to meet two requirements "extensive use" and "widely traded"。In the 2010 assessment, the yuan is considered not to achieve "free to use" standard。(Shofu compilation)